Prison population could increase by 10% in next five months

Scottish Liberal Democrat justice spokesperson Liam McArthur MSP has today called on the Scottish Government to urgently drive down the use of remand and invest in credible community orders after new figures projected an increase in the prison population over the next five months, with no likely decrease in the number remanded in custody.

The projections show that as at 4th April 2025:

• The overall prison population in Scotland was 8,138. This is likely to increase to up to 8,950 by September 2025.
• The remand population was 2,174, which is likely to be at a similar level in September 2025.

Separate figures on community payback orders also show:

• The number of orders being completed within the year are still down on pre-pandemic numbers.
• Compared to pre-pandemic levels, there was a 7% drop in the number of orders imposed in 2022-23 and finished by the end of 2023-24.

Earlier this week, new research found that the number of deaths in Scotland’s prisons has increased by 60% in the past year. Scotland’s prison mortality rate is now among the highest in Europe.

On prison population projections, Mr McArthur said:

“These figures show no let-up in the prison overcrowding crisis. It comes during a week in which we have seen deaths spike and a report detailing appalling conditions; this must be a wake-up call for the Justice Secretary.

“Huge court backlogs are still resulting in very many people being held on remand. It has led to logjams in the system which have created mammoth pressures inside prisons, with staff struggling to focus on rehabilitating prisoners.

“Scottish Liberal Democrats want to see a modern prison estate that strikes the correct balance between punishing, rehabilitating and reducing reoffending. To achieve that, the government must get serious about clearing court backlogs, giving staff the resources they need and driving down the use of remand.”

On the completion rate of community payback orders, he added:

“Community payback orders are a key part of the solution to prison overcrowding. They can ease pressure on the system and ensure people get a credible alternative to prison time.

“The Scottish Government must do more to improve enforcement of these orders. That’s how we can make sure our justice system is focussed on rehabilitating and cutting reoffending.”